For the past few weeks, we’ve been intensely inundated with information about Facebook: its IPO, acquisition of Instagram, user satisfaction, etc. It feels like most of the sentiment has been largely negative, with people talking about how Facebook has ruined users’ lives, is a fad, etc.
Some people think Facebook is a dying technology that had its place in the sun and is now withering there. I want to remind people that the same used to be said about email. Just as email is no longer a safe haven from advertisers and spam, it still plays an important role in our lives. Facebook will likely take the same route.
With the IPO, Facebook is going to need to make money, and will likely get more aggressive with ads. We can’t fault Facebook for needing cash. Supporting a system that size, storing sentimental photos, instant status updates, bug fixes to prevent security hacks, and mobile development costs money. More aggressive advertising tactics are going to ruffle the feathers of a lot of users, but they are unlikely to switch off the network completely.
The switching costs of finding a new network are too high for people to abandon Facebook. Not only would users have to start building a new history on a new network, but they would have to convince friends to join them there, as well. It’s one of the key reasons people have not switched over to Google+.
So here is my prediction:
- The number of Facebook users will continue to grow.
- Users are going to grumble about more aggressive ad tactics, and some will begin to use other social networks, but they will not abandon Facebook completely.
- Marketers will need to continue to optimize their Facebook tactics to create genuine interactions with their brand, both to save money on paid ads and to cut through the clutter.
No matter how people feel about Facebook, let’s remember the social network is literally making history, not only with its outrageous $1 billion acquisition of Instagram, but one of the world’s largest IPOs with a first-time CEO who just began his journey eight years ago. He and three employees at Facebook are now the youngest billionaires in the world.
By all accounts, Zuckerberg is kicking ass.
